Week 2 was a strange follow-up to the excitement we got in Week 1. Weather played a part, but there was some sloppy play around the league and the barrage of points slowed considerably. There was still a lot to take in, so let’s get to it.

It’s that time of year. Teams that were expected to be playoff contenders start the year slow, and we get told how few teams that start 0-2 make the playoffs. The numbers aren’t wrong. Since the NFL moved to the 17-game schedule in 2021, just eight of 40 teams that started 0-2 made the playoffs. However, that also ignores that losing two games in a row during any stretch of the season isn’t great. Here are the numbers for every two-week stretch and the percentage of teams to make the playoffs since 2021.

While an 0-2 start isn’t a unique death sentence for playoff odds compared to other weeks, it’s still not ideal. Since we’re only working with a two-game sample for this season, having two losses is all we can go off of, and any benefit of the doubt from other weeks doesn’t exist.

All 0-2 starts also aren’t created equally. It’s not really worth diving into the starts for the Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans to see if those seasons can be turned around. So let’s look at the teams that came into the season with reasonably high expectations but failed to put a tally in the win column after Week 2, why they’re here, and if there is hope going forward.

Houston Texans
Results: W1 36-31 vs Bills, W2 20-6 vs Bengals

Week 1’s loss to the Bills was a strange but promising one for the Texans. The defense was carved up by Josh Allen (fair, covered in last week’s First Read), and the offense kept the team in the game. The hope coming out of that game was if the offense could continue on that level, the defense would eventually play like the dominant unit it’s been, and the Texans would have multiple avenues to win games depending on the opponent.

The Week 2 loss to Cincinnati was as disappointing as any from 2025 because it hit all of the same notes. C.J. Stroud started the game efficiently. Per TruMedia, he averaged 0.13 EPA per play with a 50% success rate in the first half despite the team putting up only three points. But as the game went on, Stroud was forced to carry more of the weight of the offense. The run game that had a 48.4% success rate in Week 1 dropped to 13.3% against the Bengals. That ties the Dolphins’ opening-week game against the Raiders for the worst rushing success rate of the season so far. The Texans only had one game worse in 2025, a Week 3 loss to the Jaguars at 12.5%.

Stroud was forced to drop back 60 times against the Bengals, while 20 of his targets went to Dalton Schultz, Xavier Hutchinson, and Jared Wayne. He made some throws against Cincinnati that, if this receiving group was just around 1% better, would have made this a much different game. Nico Collins was out for this game after suffering a hamstring injury during the week. He’ll eventually be back, but relying on Collins’s presence to fix all of the offensive struggles might be a stretch.

Meanwhile, the defense looked closer to the 2025 version in some ways. Joe Burrow was sacked five times and had the lowest success rate among quarterbacks in Week 2 (27.8%). The Bengals also had the fourth-longest average distance to go on third down at 9.1 yards. But Burrow’s 19.4% explosive pass rate was fifth among quarterbacks, which included two big touchdowns to Ja’Marr Chase.

The Texans are currently 31st in explosive play rate allowed on defense at 16.2% through two weeks. Last year’s Houston defense ranked 14th in explosive play rate at 10.4%.

So where does that leave the Texans going forward? It’s hard to feel great about a team that still looks so much like the 2025 version, even if that team turned into a contender by the end of the season. If we’re talking about poor starts to a season, the 2025 Texans started 0-3 and made the playoffs. The schedule gets easier after a tough draw to start the season, but it remains discouraging that some of the flaws in this team look so much like the ones we saw last season. 

Panic level: More disappointed than worried

Los Angeles Chargers
Results: W1 26-14 vs Cardinals, W2, 26-14 vs Raiders

Maybe the Cardinals and Raiders are going to be better than many expected this season. Yet that still doesn’t make the past two games for the Chargers feel any better. In a year that was supposed to be different, the Chargers feel the same.

There were high expectations for a Mike McDaniel-coordinated offense and that unit hasn’t come close to meeting them. Through two weeks, the Chargers are 25th in EPA per play on offense and rank 20th in explosive pass rate. So many of the pitfalls from previous seasons have remained. Justin Herbert hasn’t played poorly, but he also hasn’t been able to make up for the surroundings. Against the Raiders, Herbert had an open pass broken up by another Chargers receiver who ran in front of the intended target and had an interception that bounced off the chest of tight end David Njoku. Some of those kinks will be worked out.

No quarterback has thrown to the intermediate level of the field at a higher rate than Herbert’s 40.9% but he’s completed just half of his passes with a 36.4% success rate and the fifth-lowest explosive pass rate on throws to that depth. McDaniel is good at opening that part of the field, but the passing offense has struggled to convert those into successful plays.

What’s worrying on offense are the problems McDaniel was supposed to fix. Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are back at tackle, but the interior of the offensive line has been a consistent issue. The only quarterback with a higher pressure rate than Herbert through two weeks is Caleb Williams, who has been the league’s most blitzed quarterback so far this season. Herbert has been blitzed on fewer than a quarter of his dropbacks, but has been pressured 43.9% of the time. Without pressure, Herbert has a 51.3% success rate when not pressured this season, but that drops to 17.2% when pressured.

The interior offensive line has also stunted a run game that was supposed to be improved and explosive under McDaniel. During McDaniel’s run in Miami, he was able to scheme around offensive line deficiencies and figure out how to at least create big plays on the ground. The Chargers rank 30th in rushing EPA per play and only have four running back carries of 10 or more yards.

Defensively, the Chargers appear to be feeling the loss of Jesse Minter, especially against the pass. The Chargers are 29th in pressure rate and the coverage behind the pass rush has not been up to par. This defense is 24th in the number of plays allowed to gain at least 10 yards. Despite holding the Raiders on the ground, there were enough chunks given up through the air that allowed Las Vegas to keep control of the game.

It’s hard to see exactly how this all turns around quickly enough for a meaningful recovery in 2026. The Chargers play the Bills — currently first in EPA per play on offense — next week, and it doesn’t get easier after that. Before a Week 7 bye, the Chargers play the Seahawks, Broncos, and Chiefs. After the bye, the Chargers get the Rams, Texans, and Ravens. The degree of difficulty for a turnaround could not be higher, even if this team doesn’t look as out of sorts as it has during the first two weeks.

Panic level:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Results: W1 33-27 vs Bengals, W1 23-19 vs Browns

Prior to the start of the season, the Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield agreed to a three-year contract extension that basically keeps him through at least the 2028 season. It was a contentious negotiation that didn’t seem like the Buccaneers were willing to commit multiple new guaranteed years to the quarterback until the deal was completed. Just two weeks into the extension, the results have not been favorable.

Mayfield ranks 32nd among quarterbacks in EPA per play through the opening two weeks of the season. He ranks a slightly more respectable 24th in success rate, but that’s still not the kind of silver lining the Bucs are looking for. Tampa Bay’s passing offense is currently the equivalent of a layups-and-threes shooting chart in basketball. Mayfield has the highest rate of throws at or behind the line of scrimmage (35%) and of 20 or more air yards (20%). The problem is the deep shots aren’t hitting. Mayfield is just 2-of-12 on throws of 20 or more air yards with one interception. He’s completed 71% of his passes overall, but no quarterback has a bigger difference between his average air yards on attempts (9.1) and completions (3.4).

The strategy has also fluctuated in the two games. In Week 1, just 3.7% of Mayfield’s throws went 20 or more air yards but that went to 33.3% in Week 2. Mayfield wasn’t just inaccurate against the Browns, when he did complete passes, they didn’t have much value. Against Cleveland, 52.4% of Mayfield’s completions failed to produce positive EPA.

When Mayfield has struggled, it’s typically because he’s trying to do too much. That caused a few turnovers against the Bengals and resulted in the quarterback trying to buy time and throw deep against the Browns. Mayfield has been at his best when he has something to prove, but it looks like he’s trying to prove he was worth the extension he just received and his play as suffered for it.

The Bucs get Brian Flores and the Vikings next week, which could lead to an all-time Mayfield chaos game.

If there’s a red flag on defense, it’s the pass rush. With Reuben Bain and YaYa Diaby, the Bucs were expected to finally have an effective edge duo that could create pressure without the need to constantly blitz. On plays with a four-man rush, only the Dolphins have a lower pressure rate (17.5%) than the Buccaneers (20.5%). Without a blitz, the Buccaneers have allowed 8.1 yards per play and rank 29th in EPA per play against the pass. It’s nearly impossible to live that way, but the defensive talent should be enough to turn it around. 

Panic level: Not great, but the NFC South leaves some margin for error

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The first and second overall picks from the 2024 NFL Draft left their games early with an injury in Week 2. Caleb Williams left with what is being called a hamstring injury — a relative relief from the knee or Achilles injuries that looked like they could have been in play when he went down.

Before the injury, Williams was under the Brian Flores stress test. The Vikings blitzed Williams on 81.3% of his dropbacks. The Bears played a relatively safe game as Williams had a 3.2-yard aDOT. Williams handled the blitz well by EPA per play — 0.08 with a 42.3% success rate. That’s about as good as an offense could hope against that volume of pressure and with the weather conditions in Chicago. On the few non-blitzes, Williams averaged -0.21 EPA per play, but that was mostly due to some negative residual effects from blitzing downs. Three of the six dropbacks against non-blitzes were on second-and-17, second-and-15, and third-and-29.

The Bears only had a 27.6% rushing success rate against the Vikings’ front. That helped force the Bears into a lot of third-and-longs, with 53.3% of their third downs needing seven or more yards to go, as opposed to 28.6% in Week 1.

If Williams only misses limited time, the Bears should be able to craft a run game and low-risk passing game with Tyson Bagent that can keep the offense afloat until Williams returns.

The same level of optimism doesn’t appear likely in Washington, where Jayden Daniels suffered a dislocated elbow on the final play of the first half against Dallas. Trying to score a touchdown with three seconds and no timeouts remaining, Daniels tripped on his center during the exchange and popped his elbow as he put his arm down to brace himself on the fall. The replay elicited an “oh shit” from Tom Brady in the booth and likely the entire Commanders fan base.

Daniels initially missed four games with the same injury last season but reaggravated it upon his return to play in a game he went 9-of-20, and missed the remainder of the season. In the first half against the Cowboys, Daniels looked closer to his standout rookie season than he did at any point in 2025. Daniels averaged 0.22 EPA per play with a 58.3% success rate. Much of that success came on the ground with a 26.1% scramble rate and no sacks.

While it’s just Week 2, it’s fair to wonder about the long-term impact for the Washington franchise. Daniels, after such a promising rookie season, has played in just nine games since, with two wins. Extension talks can start after a player’s third season, but it’s going to be hard for the Commanders to get an early jump, which can help spread out the money given out in a new deal, while there are still questions around what Daniels can be as a quarterback with such a limited sample of seeing him on the field. Last year, Daniels missed five games and still didn’t look right in his return to the field. Among Washington’s next five games are meetings with the Seahawks, 49ers, and Eagles. The sixth game in Week 9 is against the Rams.

The Commanders are already in an 0-2 hole. Is it worth getting Daniels back on the field for a team that could easily only have two wins by the middle of November? If that’s the case, is this a time for a bigger reset in Washington with a new coaching staff? A Week 2 injury could have massive lingering effects for the Commanders.

He’s insane. The body control on the sideline is unreal. After two catches for 12 yards in Week 1, Chase went 7-75-2 against the Texans. 

Through the first two weeks of the season, the Panthers have clearly been more intentional with the alignment and usage of Tetairoa McMillan. He’s increased his slot usage from 15.2% as a rookie to 23.3% this year. While he doesn’t have a reception from the slot yet this season, his movement has been a weapon. On a third-and-5, McMillian went on short motion from the slot to an outside stack, which placed him against an off corner and gave him enough space to work a corner route for a 12-yard gain. That, on top of the other one-on-one ways he wins, makes the future bright for the star of the Carolina offense.

After the first half against Jacksonville, it looked like it could be another ugly game for Denver, raising questions about what the Broncos are this season. But in the second half, Bo Nix averaged 0.54 EPA per play with a 62.5% success rate. The Broncos got multiple big plays to Jaylen Waddle and looked more like the offense most were expecting coming into the season. There might not have been a bigger swing between the reality of 1-1 and a potential 0-2 than what the Broncos faced in Week 2.

Nothing is stopping Jaxon Smith-Njigba. After a 155-yard receiving day in Week 2, a full game with Drew Lock, JSN again leads the NFL in receiving yards. Through two games, he’s accounted for 44% of the Seahawks’ targets and has been targeted on 44% of his routes. Since 2010, there have been 13 instances of a player with at least a 40% target share through the first two weeks of the regular season. Smith-Njigba is the only player to appear twice. 

The Colts faced a fourth-and-8 on their first drive in overtime after allowing a field goal on the Chiefs’ opening drive. Getting the ball second in overtime can be beneficial because, with each team getting a possession, the second team can know what is needed and it allows the offense to be more aggressive. With 3:15 remaining, it would be unlikely the Colts would get the ball back for a fourth total overtime possession if they kicked to tie the game

Going for it would be the clear move in most situations, but fourth-and-8 is pretty long. The ESPN model leaned kick. It’s a defensible position.

What should be under scrutiny is how the Colts handled their possession leading up to the kick — it felt like they were playing for the tie. After the 48-yard pass to Laquon Treadwell, Indianapolis had a first-and-10 at the 17-yard line. The Colts then ran the ball twice for losses of one and two yards. Those two run calls were more maddening than the choice to kick the field goal. With a more aggressive approach after the big play, the Colts could have had a closer fourth down or avoided fourth down altogether and snuck out with a touchdown and a win.